Following up on the previous post.
“Pollsters Face Hurdles in Changing Landscape,” The Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2016 B1. Possible answers to why things were so wrong:
- Move from landlines to cellphones and internet
- Fewer people willing to answer surveys
- Assumptions pollsters make about who’s going to vote
- Sample size
- Reliance on poll methodology from 4 years ago
- Who’s willing to answer questions
- Technologies used more by millennials than older folks
- Building an accurate sample is hard
Other than employing lots of folks, filling a lot of “news” presentations, and disturbing a lot of dinners with yet another phone call, what is polling worth? “‘It’s going to go away in its current form.'”
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