More on forecasts

“The $9 Billion Upcharge: How Insurers Kept Extra Cash From Medicare,” The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2019.  Insurers’ estimates of cost of future prescriptions are always wrong, and, surprisingly, favor the insurers.  $9 billion worth.

See also https://infogovnuggets.com/2019/01/05/projections-as-information/, which deals with projections as information.

Wouldn’t you think the “system” would have controls to adjust for over-estimates?  Is the fact that such controls are not working, over time, indicate a failure of Governance? Or of Compliance? Estimates are information, but need to be weighted.  Are they in good faith?

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Filed under Theme One: Information, Theme Three: Compliance, Theme Two: Governance

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